The Battle for Nigeria’s Oil Future: Dangote’s Audacious Bet Against the Cartels
By Oke Umurhohwo, Ughelli, Delta State
From the oil-scarred heart of the Niger Delta, where spills, sabotage and broken promises have long defined our reality, I’ve watched Nigeria’s oil story unfold with both skepticism and hope.
For years, I saw Aliko Dangote as just another billionaire building empires in cement and sugar, while the rest of us queued endlessly for fuel under the scorching sun. But his $20 billion refinery gamble has changed the narrative.
What’s unfolding now in Lekki, Lagos is not just a business story, it’s a seismic shift in Nigeria’s oil future, one that pits a single industrialist against the entrenched cartels and foreign interests that have held this country hostage for decades.
On October 1, 2025, the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) suspended its three-day strike at the Dangote Refinery after government mediation. Relief washed over the country, but tension lingers. The union insists no real agreement was signed and has threatened fresh action unless 800 sacked workers are reinstated. That short-lived shutdown alone slashed national output by 16%, about 283,000 barrels per day, exposing just how critical this facility has become to Nigeria’s fragile energy ecosystem.
Behind the labour dispute lies a bigger battle. Accusations of sabotage are everywhere; from international oil companies (IOCs) hoarding crude and demanding dollar payments, to local import cartels lobbying regulators and unions escalating strikes. Dangote’s 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery, the largest in Africa, has become the frontline in a war between a new vision of energy sovereignty and the old guard desperate to preserve their monopoly.
When many billionaires fled to safer shores, Dangote doubled down on Nigeria. For over a decade, he poured resources into a refinery project that defied bureaucracy, funding hurdles and outright sabotage.
Partial operations began in 2024, and by mid-2025, the refinery was running at full stride. Since June, it has exported 3.2m metric tonnes of fuels, while imports fell to 3.7m tonnes. Over 30m liters of products are being diverted daily from foreign importers, choking a $50 billion annual fuel import racket.
The model is vertically integrated, sourcing crude, refining and distributing via 4,000 CNG-powered trucks. This slashes logistics costs and sidelines middlemen. Zenith, Access, and GTB bankrolled the project with billions, recognizing what’s at stake. If it succeeds, the naira could stabilize between 400 – 600 naira per dollar, import bills could drop by $15 billion annually, and nearly 86,000 jobs, both direct and indirect would be secured.
If it fails? We risk over 3,000 naira to the dollar, fresh queues and a collapsed investment climate.
However, no revolution goes unchallenged. Dangote’s refinery has triggered desperate pushback from many places, including
International Oil Companies who have been accused of hoarding crude and forcing dollar-denominated deals to squeeze margins. Dangote himself has branded them “the oil mafia.”
There is also Depot owners under DAPPMAN and IPMAN who have warned that his direct-to-consumer model will collapse their networks.
Not forgetting unions. Strikes by PENGASSAN and NUPENG accuse Dangote of “slavery wages”, even though salaries are far above what state refineries ever paid. The recent strike stemmed from workers allegedly leaking operational secrets to unions via WhatsApp.
I can’t also forget NNPC and other regulators. They briefly suspended naira crude sales in September 2025, under pressure from import lobbies keen to maintain dollar dominance.
Even crude theft syndicates are part of this dirty fight, worsening production losses. Nigerians are asking the hard questions: “Who is sponsoring PENGASSAN? Why is every cartel, from marketers to regulators so desperate to cripple this project?”
These questions are by Nigerians need answers because Nigerians are the ones in the middle. For ordinary citizens, the refinery feels like a double-edged sword. Critics worry about a Dangote monopoly. After all, he dominates cement and sugar, now fuel too? What if he jacks up prices?
But from Ughelli, where foreign barons drained us for decades, this project looks like redemption. Already, $2.5 billion in forex savings has been recorded this year alone. Fuel queues are easing. Transport and food prices, while not yet stable, are trending downward. And whispers of Dangote snapping up filling stations in Ghana and Senegal suggest regional expansion that could flood West Africa with Nigerian fuels, bringing in more dollars.
The balance of risks and rewards is clear. Economically, Nigeria stands to save billions of dollars annually in foreign exchange while stabilizing the naira at a more realistic level. The jobs impact is also massive, with almost 30,000 direct roles and another 57,000 in trucking and allied services, most paying three to four times the minimum wage. On the consumer side, steady supply promises an end to fuel queues, reduced transport costs and relief from food inflation pressures. Nationally, it gives us energy sovereignty, cutting out decades of humiliating dependence on imports.
Yes, risks exist. Bank loans backing the project could strain the financial sector if things falter. Layoffs, like the disputed 800 workers in October, will always ignite controversy. And of course, monopoly fears linger. If one man controls such a vital lifeline, what stops him from dictating prices?
But weighed against decades of sabotage, fuel scarcity and the staggering costs of imports, these risks pale beside the potential gains.
The government’s intervention that ended the October strike, reabsorbing workers with no pay loss, was wise. A new two-year naira crude deal with NNPC is a welcome relief. But this truce is fragile.
President Bola Tinubu must protect this “strategic infrastructure” without alienating stakeholders. One bold move could silence the monopoly critics.. privatize Nigeria’s comatose state refineries and create true competition.
In my opinion, this refinery is no longer just Dangote’s, it is Nigeria’s. It represents our chance to end decades of dependency, sabotage and queues. Cartels, unions and complacency must not be allowed to strangle it.
I write from Ughelli, where oil has long been a curse. For the first time, it feels like it could be a blessing. The Dangote refinery may not be perfect, but it is a lifeline. The choice before us is stark: back the builder or side with the wreckers.
Nigeria’s oil future is at stake. And I, for one, know which side I’m on.
Oke Umurhohwo writes from Ughelli, Delta State